Tom O'Neil's Inside Track

Oscars update: Tom O’Neil handicaps the Best Picture race – It’s a real derby, damn it!


This is “one of the strangest Oscar races I can ever remember,” gasps Sasha Stone at AwardsDaily.

Amen, comrade! Take the confounding, mysterious, WTF Oscar Best Picture contest, for example. Out of the top 7 flicks in Gold Derby’s list of our Oscar Experts’ racetrack odds, I can see a path for 6 of them, really, to win: “A Star Is Born,” “Black Panther,” “BlacKkKlansman,” “The Favourite,” “Green Book” or “Roma.”

The excellent “If Beale Street Could Talk” is ranked number 6, but it was totally snubbed at the SAG Awards. Not even Regina King got in! (Oh, come on! But don’t give up on her — she can still win the Oscar. More on that in a separate article.) “Roma” got snubbed at SAG, too, that’s true, but it was voted Best Picture by the L.A. and N.Y. film critics’ groups and its helmer Alfonso Cauron is out front to win Best Director, although he should be very, very worried by Spike Lee (“BlacKkKlansman”) and Bradley Cooper (“A Star Is Born”). None of Gold Derby’s 32 Experts pick “Beale” to win Best Picture. See how all of them rank their predicted nominees according to likelihood of winning.